How private equity’s big bet on software was derailed by AI

Date: Feb 12, 2026
Source: Financial Times

中文摘要

私募股权巨头 Thoma Bravo 和 Vista Equity Partners 过去十年在软件行业的万亿赌局正面临人工智能（AI）的严峻挑战。以 Thoma Bravo 收购呼叫中心软件商 Verint 为例，因市场担忧 AI 算法将取代此类服务，收购价被迫大幅下调，相关融资银行随后出售债务时遭遇巨亏。这一事件被视为市场的风向标：曾是私募股权和私人信贷“宠儿”的利基软件公司，如今正面临由于 Claude Opus 4.6 等先进 AI 模型带来的生存危机。这些 AI 模型能够重构法律、金融和数据分析等领域的软件应用，直接威胁到那些仅依靠特定领域知识但缺乏深护城河的中间商。尽管 Orlando Bravo 辩称 AI 将帮助软件公司降本增效，Robert Smith 宣称正在打造“智能体工厂”，但市场估值已大幅回缩，Salesforce 等巨头股价下跌，黑石、Ares 等信贷方也开始警惕。由于过去几年是在高估值、低利率环境下完成的大量收购，如今在高息和 AI 冲击的双重夹击下，私募股权机构面临巨大的退出难题，原本预期的丰厚回报可能化为泡影，整个行业正迎来“达尔文时刻”。

English Summary

The “golden era” of private equity’s dominance in the software sector is facing an existential threat from the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. For over a decade, firms like Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners poured trillions into niche software companies—ranging from call center management to legal services—betting on their reliable, recurring subscription revenues. This strategy minted billionaires and fueled the rise of the private credit industry, with lenders like Ares and Blue Owl eager to finance these stable cash flows. However, the release of powerful AI models, such as Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6, has upended this thesis. The recent turbulent acquisition of Verint by Thoma Bravo serves as a bellwether: the deal price was slashed, and financing banks incurred significant losses as investors feared AI could render Verint’s services obsolete.

The core anxiety is that generative AI can replicate the functionality of specialized software at a fraction of the cost, dismantling the “moats” of domain expertise that these companies relied on. Public market valuations for software firms have already plummeted, dragging down the portfolios of private equity giants. While industry leaders like Orlando Bravo argue that AI will actually benefit their portfolio companies by reducing costs and that market leaders will survive, the math is becoming difficult. Many deals struck during the zero-interest-rate bubble of 2020-2021 are now underwater, facing the “double whammy” of higher capital costs and AI-driven deflation. With IPOs on hold and exits becoming harder, the industry is bracing for a “Darwinian moment” where only the strongest, most adaptable software platforms will survive the AI disruption.

Key Vocabulary (重点词汇详解)

1. Bellwether

Pronunciation: /ˈbelˌweð.ər/

Definition: An indicator or predictor of something (风向标，晴雨表). Originally refers to the leading sheep of a flock, with a bell on its neck.

Contextual Meaning: The Verint acquisition is seen as a leading indicator for the entire software private equity market, signaling future trouble.

Usage:

*Part of speech: Noun.
*Collocations: bellwether stock (风向标股), bellwether state (风向标州), economic bellwether.
*Warning: Often implies a predictive quality, not just importance.

Example Sentences:

*Original: “Its acquisition of Verint has come to be seen as a bellwether moment.”
*New: “FedEx is often considered an economic bellwether because its shipping volume reflects global trade activity.” (联邦快递常被视为经济风向标，因为其运输量反映了全球贸易活动。)

2. Darwinian moment

Pronunciation: /dɑːˈwɪn.i.ən ˈməʊ.mənt/

Definition: A situation of intense competition where only the fittest survive (优胜劣汰的时刻). Derived from Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection.

Contextual Meaning: The private credit and software industries are entering a brutal phase where weaker companies will fail due to AI disruption and high debt.

Usage:

*Part of speech: Noun phrase.
*Collocations: face a Darwinian moment, a Darwinian struggle.
*Warning: Use to describe cutthroat, survival-of-the-fittest scenarios, not just general difficulty.

Example Sentences:

*Original: “David Golub… told his investors that his industry was facing a ‘Darwinian moment’.”
*New: “The retail sector is facing a Darwinian moment as e-commerce giants crush traditional brick-and-mortar stores.” (随着电商巨头碾压传统实体店，零售业正面临优胜劣汰的时刻。)

3. Obsolete

Pronunciation: /ˌɒb.səˈliːt/

Definition: No longer produced or used; out of date (过时的，被淘汰的).

Contextual Meaning: AI technologies threaten to make niche software services unnecessary or outdated.

Usage:

*Part of speech: Adjective.
*Collocations: become obsolete, render sth obsolete, technically obsolete.
*Warning: Differs from “old” or “antique”; obsolete implies it is no longer useful or has been replaced.

Example Sentences:

*Original: “Digital services risk being made obsolete by new technologies.”
*New: “Typewriters became obsolete with the advent of personal computers.” (随着个人电脑的出现，打字机被淘汰了。)

4. Tailwind

Pronunciation: /ˈteɪl.wɪnd/

Definition: A wind blowing from behind that drives something forward; figuratively, a force or influence that helps progress (顺风，有利因素).

Contextual Meaning: AI is a beneficial force (tailwind) for cybersecurity companies, helping them grow, unlike other sectors where it is a threat.

Usage:

*Part of speech: Noun.
*Collocations: provide a tailwind, strong tailwinds, economic tailwinds.
*Antonym: Headwind (逆风，不利因素).

Example Sentences:

*Original: “Areas like cyber security… where AI is a tailwind.”
*New: “Lower interest rates provided a tailwind for the housing market this year.” (低利率为今年的房地产市场提供了有利条件。)

5. Write-down

Pronunciation: /ˈraɪt.daʊn/

Definition: A reduction in the estimated or nominal value of an asset in a company’s financial books (资产减记).

Contextual Meaning: Private credit funds haven’t yet officially lowered the value of their loans, but the market expects they will have to soon.

Usage:

*Part of speech: Noun (verb form: write down).
*Collocations: take a write-down, massive write-down, inventory write-down.
*Warning: Distinct from “write-off” (taking value to zero); write-down is a partial reduction.

Example Sentences:

*Original: “Private credit funds have not yet taken significant writedowns on their loan books.”
*New: “The company was forced to take a $1 billion write-down on its failed acquisition.” (该公司被迫对其失败的收购项目进行 10 亿美元的资产减记。)